Behind the Curtain: The 6 stages of political surrender

Axios Axios —

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Republicans didn't decide to become https://www.axios.com/2026/06/26/trump-senate-republicans-blind-loyalty" target="_blank">President Trump's party.

They surrendered to him, one stage at a time, over a decade, in plain sight.

Why it matters: Party transformations follow a predictable six-stage evolution — recoil, squint, rationalize, submit, amplify, and purge.

Each stage has language you can hear long before you see it in the votes.

Republicans just finished the full cycle.

Democrats might be starting it.

Watch how the language shifts, stage by stage, for signs of whether https://www.ap.org/news-highlights/elections/2026/the-next-big-races-between-moderates-and-progressives-are-in-pivotal-midwestern-states/" target="_blank">recent socialist wins are an anomaly, or the start of something bigger and broader.

Zoom out and in: With socialism, the Democratic base moved first, as the base always does. https://news.gallup.com/poll/694835/image-capitalism-slips.aspx" target="_blank">Gallup found last year that Democrats viewed socialism more positively than capitalism by 24 points — the widest gap on record, and sharpest among https://www.ap.org/news-highlights/spotlights/2025/what-americans-think-about-socialism-and-capitalism-according-to-a-new-gallup-poll/" target="_blank">younger voters.

Now listen to the language: "It's not socialism, it's affordability" is the left's "It's not the tweets, it's the judges." Textbook early sign of Stage 3.

  • Bill Daley — former Commerce Secretary and White House chief of staff — told us Democrats can't rationalize a candidate saying: "Oh, I didn't mean it when I said or agreed with a crazy idea a while ago." Instead, Daley said, they need to aggressively denounce "out-of-mainstream ideas and plans," and go after actual socialists by "shoving that platform up their noses."
  • In an https://www.wsj.com/opinion/socialists-lead-democrats-into-the-tea-party-trap-c991b290?st=uctPrA&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink" target="_blank">op-ed for The Wall Street Journal warning Dems of the "Tea-Party Trap" that befell the GOP, Daley wrote: "Democrats are fooling themselves if they think a similar hijacking can't happen to their party."

The counterpoint: Socialism is widely seen by most elected Democrats as political poison.

So this moment could prove fleeting.

Four reasons for this:

  1. Socialism has no enforcer yet. Trump ended careers personally.

    An idea can't, unless someone becomes the idea.

    Mamdani endorsing, campaigning and toppling incumbents is what an enforcer looks like in beta.

    But it's hard to see Bernie Sanders or AOC taking this national.

  2. The far left has no Fox News synchronizing base and elites.

    In fact, it's safe to assume The New York Times, The Atlantic and MS NOW will resist socialism, at least initially.

    But watch for the formation of a media ecosystem to counter them.

    Politics is downstream from information flow and currents.

  3. Transmission is slower. Democratic voters, broadly speaking, are institutionalists.

    Republican voters wanted demolition.

    Submission to an insurgency may have a lower ceiling on the left.

  4. Socialists need to clear general-election hurdles, as Trump did. If socialist nominees cost Democrats swing seats in November, expect the https://apnews.com/article/2002-iraq-war-vote-senate-authorization-reflection-60989b19ca76a2d9c2e2ff1bad97dc5a" target="_blank">Iraq-style reversal and recoil to come roaring back.

What to watch:

  1. The language: Do swing-district Democrats start saying "democratic socialist" without flinching or keep laundering it as "affordability"?

    Laundering means Stage 3.

  2. The endorsement lag: How long do Jeffries and Chuck Schumer stall on Mamdani-wing nominees this fall?

    Jeffries' https://www.politico.com/news/2025/06/29/jeffries-zohran-mamdani-new-york-00431481" target="_blank">slow-walk on Mamdani himself last year was textbook squint.

  3. The Liz Cheney test: Does a Democrat https://www.axios.com/2022/08/17/liz-cheney-trump-wyoming-primary-hageman" target="_blank">lose a primary specifically for attacking the socialist wing?

    That's the Stage 4 gateway.

  4. Copycat: Do 2028 hopefuls adopt the rent freezes and public groceries they mocked in 2019?

    Stage 5: Language + policies.

  5. Retirements: Do moderate Democrats retire rather than adapt?

That's Stage 6 starting.

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https://www.axios.com/2026/06/26/trump-senate-republicans-blind-loyalty" target="_blank">Go deeper ...

Behind the Curtain: The cost of blind loyalty.

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