Europe swelters under record-breaking heat wave

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New June temperature records were set in the U.K. and France this week as a deadly https://www.axios.com/energy-climate/extreme-weather" target="_blank">heat wave grips much of Europe.

Why it matters: A new World Weather Attribution analysis found human-caused https://www.axios.com/energy-climate/climate-change" target="_blank">climate change made this week's extreme heat "virtually impossible" 50 years ago.


The big picture: Extreme heat warnings have been issued across the continent this week, from https://www.met.ie/warnings-today.html" target="_blank">Ireland to https://x.com/n1slovenija/status/2069728441297993899" target="_blank">Slovenia.

By the numbers: 45% of cities analyzed across 30 European countries have "already, or are predicted to, break their highest ever heat stress levels," per a World Weather Attribution https://mcusercontent.com/854a9a3e09405d4ab19a4a9d5/files/724ade7e-f37f-005f-e166-1f2b53a35d21/FINAL__WWA_Press_Release_Europe_Heat.pdf" target="_blank">statement on its study findings.

  • "The sweltering overnight temperatures keeping many people awake this week" are about 100 times more likely today than they were just 23 years ago "during the infamous 2003 European heatwave," it said. "The daytime peaks are about 10x more likely."

Zoom in: France recorded its hottest night on record Wednesday night, with an average temperature across the country of 38.5°C (101°F), per provisional data from https://x.com/meteofrance/status/2070139195662692444" target="_blank">Météo-France, the French meteorological agency.

  • Wednesday also saw France's hottest day on record — beating the record set the previous day — with an average national temperature of https://wmo.int/media/news/records-fall-extreme-heat-grips-europe" target="_blank">30°C (86°F), above previous records set in July 2019 and August 2003.
  • The same day, Météo-France https://x.com/meteofrance/status/2069833394591010854" target="_blank">reported that provisional figures showed the town of Palluau in western France endured "the hottest day ever recorded" anywhere in the country, when the temperature reached 43.8°C (110.84°F).

The U.K. provisionally set a new maximum temperature record for June for the second straight day on Wednesday, with 36.7°C (98.06°F) reached at Merryfield, in the southwestern English county of Somerset, according to the Met Office.

What they found: The World Weather Attribution analysis https://mcusercontent.com/854a9a3e09405d4ab19a4a9d5/files/828a2e5b-68f7-0b29-687e-7bfdefd9c532/FINAL_WWA_European_Heat_Summary_of_findings.01.pdf" target="_blank">noted that previous June records had stood since the 1976 European heat wave.

  • The analysis found that had this June's heat wave occurred in the climate of 1976, temperatures during the day this week would have been about 3.5°C cooler.
  • The El Niño-Southern Oscillation phase had no role in driving this week's heat, researchers say.

Context: Scientists used weather observations and forecasts to compare today's warmer climate with the cooler climates of 2003 and 1976 to see how much human-caused climate change increased the chances of this extreme heat, per World Weather Attribution.

Between the lines: https://www.axios.com/2024/06/20/heat-waves-summer-wildfires-europe-africa-asia" target="_blank">Research shows heat waves are becoming hotter, more frequent and longer lasting due to climate change.

The bottom line: "The science of how climate change is worsening heatwaves is settled," said Theodore Keeping, an extreme weather and wildfire researcher at Imperial College London, in a statement accompanying the report.

  • "Continued fossil-fuel emissions are directly responsible for the disruption people are experiencing this week in their homes, schools and workplaces.

    The speed of change is startling.

    Every few years we are seeing heat records shattered in Europe."

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