Buffett and Kalshi: Two views of America's gambling boom

The Oracle of Omaha is concerned that America has a gambling problem.

Why it matters: https://www.axios.com/2025/11/10/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway" target="_blank">Warren Buffett recently retired from Berkshire Hathaway, but when he speaks, investors still listen.

Driving the news: Buffett articulated his concerns about https://www.axios.com/2026/02/08/polymarket-kalshi-draftkings-fanduel-betting" target="_blank">America's gambling culture in an https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/15/warren-buffett-on-the-market-today-its-tough-to-find-values-when-everybody-is-preferring-gambling.html" target="_blank">interview with CNBC, saying speculative trading is undermining long-term investing.

• "It's tough to find values when everybody is preferring gambling," he said.
• He added: "Since humans love to gamble so much, there's more money in, in actually cultivating gamblers than there are cultivating investors."

The big picture: Buffett's comments come amid the rise of https://www.axios.com/2026/04/09/kalshi-axios-show-mansour-lopes-lara" target="_blank">prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, which are giving investors the ability to risk money via alternative methods.

• Kalshi recently https://www.axios.com/2026/05/29/kalshi-perps-perpetual-futures-crypto" target="_blank">debuted perpetual futures, or perps, allowing investors to effectively bet on whether the price of an existing asset will go up or down.
• And the prediction markets are under fire from critics who say they're facilitating gambling — particularly on sports — outside of the auspices of state gaming regulation.

The other side: Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said Tuesday in an https://x.com/axios/status/2077020658169532855/video/1" target="_blank">on-stage interview at Axios House DC that many prediction market users feel like conventional markets "are not working" for them.

• "They feel like the game is rigged against them — and they're mostly right.

  There's no way for them to get an edge in those markets," Mansour said.

Friction point: The rapid expansion of sports betting has been blamed for fueling gambling addiction, particularly among younger Americans.

And critics say prediction markets https://apnews.com/article/kalshi-polymarket-prediction-markets-45ffa90f68402461fcad768ce54caf6d" target="_blank">are doing the same.

What we're watching: It remains to be seen whether efforts by both industries to invest in problem gambling initiatives and support legislative efforts will be enough to satisfy lawmakers.

• Mansour appeared Wednesday at a press conference on Capitol Hill to support a new bipartisan bill to help prevent kids from using prediction markets and sportsbooks by requiring facial recognition technology to verify their age before they can bet or trade.
• Kalshi also recently https://www.axios.com/2026/05/18/kalshi-national-council-problem-gambling" target="_blank">joined the National Council on Problem Gambling, becoming the first prediction market to do so.

The bottom line: The conversation about America's gambling habit is reaching the highest levels.