GOP midterms strategy: Make it a "hate election"

Republicans admit the GOP's https://www.axios.com/politics-policy/2026-midterm-elections" target="_blank">midterm forecast is bleak.

But they're clinging to two hopes: voters' fear and loathing of Democrats.

• "It's going to be a hate election," a Republican tied to President https://www.axios.com/politics-policy/donald-trump" target="_blank">Trump's political operation told Axios. "Voters have to hate the Dems more than they hate us.

  And we have material to work with."

Why it matters: There's broad GOP frustration that Trump has made challenging midterm elections worse by not focusing heavily on pocketbook issues — especially the tax cuts Republicans won — while launching the Iran war, which raised gas prices and fueled inflation.

• Trump's prime-time speech Thursday night about China's https://www.axios.com/2026/07/17/trump-china-election-interference-us-intelligence-claim" target="_blank">alleged influence campaign targeting U.S. voters six years ago did little to assuage those concerns.
• "I have yet to understand how we win the midterms by talking about what happened in 2020," Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) told Axios.

Zoom in: Trump hopes his speech will pressure Congress to pass his controversial https://www.axios.com/2026/06/30/house-republicansstuck-save-america-act" target="_blank">SAVE America Act and excite his base voters to turn out.

But GOP pollsters and election pros outside of the White House say it's falling on deaf ears.

• "We've studied this, and it's not a winner," said a Republican pollster working on multiple races nationwide. "Our research shows people want the president to make their life better, and they don't believe he has."

The pollster's data now indicate Democrats could wind up with a seven-seat majority in the House, where Republicans currently have a six-seat edge.

Trump's net approval rating is underwater by 10 points.

• A Washington Post/Ipsos https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/07/16/trump-approval-stuck-30s-post-ipsos-poll-shows/" target="_blank">poll out Thursday showed Trump's net approval rating was even worse among registered voters: -19%.

Friction point: Democrats also have poor favorability ratings.

And Republicans plan to use the Democrats' https://www.axios.com/2026/06/29/democrats-rebellion-left-progressives" target="_blank">Tea Party-like revolt by progressives to paint the entire party as radicals who can't be trusted to govern.

• "Swing voters have a persistent fear the Democrats will just go too far left," said a second GOP pollster with an array of clients across the nation. "So we can make the case that yeah, we suck.

  But they're worse."

• That pollster echoed the first: "The president has got to start talking about things people really care about — like tax cuts — and not all this other stuff.

  But we know he just won't."

Reality check: Both political parties have similar (low) approval ratings in the eyes of voters, according to a Pew Research Center https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2026/05/01/americans-continue-to-view-both-the-republican-and-democratic-parties-negatively/" target="_blank">poll.

• A majority of voters consistently view Trump as dishonest (even in red states, including https://x.com/AaronBlake/status/2078096186116903311" target="_blank">Texas).
• And Republicans counting on voters hating liberal Democrats more than them might consider this: A https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/17/democratic-socialists-top-maga-candidates-all-america-poll.html" target="_blank">CNBC poll out Friday https://x.com/AaronBlake/status/2078096186116903311" target="_blank">found that voters now are more likely to be turned off by a MAGA candidate than a democratic socialist.