Report: Trump’s D.C. Military Occupation Isn’t Accomplishing Anything

The New Republic The New Republic —

President Trump has long cast Washington D.C. as a disgusting, violent hellhole of a city that wasn’t safe for living until he called in the National Guard last year.

Now https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2026/08/11/trump-says-hes-made-dc-safer-truth-is-more-complicated/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">new reporting from the Washington Post calls that claim into question.

The Post found what experts had https://newrepublic.com/article/212236/trump-drop-crime-murders-democrats-cities" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">long suspected—that the https://www.whitehouse.gov/releases/2026/07/crime-plummets-another-historic-low-under-president-trump/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">numbers Trump so often touted—an 88 to 92 percent decrease in crime and an 18 percent decrease in homicides—were due to a downward trend in crime that appeared long before the National Guard did.

Not only that, but the study notes an increase in assaults with a dangerous weapon.

“If you want to argue that there was an additional decline on top of that due to all these interventions, you could plausibly make that argument,” said crime data analyst Jeff Asher told the Post, noting that violent crime rates have been dropping virtually everywhere for the past three years. “But you can’t make the argument that the intervention caused that decline or even was a major factor in those trends turning over ... “This is what happens with crime data,” he continued. “It’s the ultimate ‘Failure is an orphan, success has many fathers’ issue.”

This means that the National Guard have been loitering in the streets of D.C.—in metro stops, in beautiful public parks, by Trader Joes—without accomplishing anything.

“Homicide was notably below expected during and after the surge, although we’re more cautious with that finding because the numbers are relatively small,” he said. “Robbery and broader community violence also moved lower, while assault with a dangerous weapon did not show the same clear citywide pattern.” Georgia State University criminal justice professor Thaddeus Johnson said. “One would be hard-pressed to say that it didn’t play a role ... but you would also be hard-pressed to say it was the only or primary reason why we’ve seen reductions.”

The Trump administration has continued to insist that they should get all the credit.

“D.C. is one of the safest cities in the country now.

We’re the most amazing country on earth, the strongest nation on earth. you would think our capitol would be a symbol for the entire world, a beacon.

And it wasn’t before President Trump,” White House Bordern Czar Tom Homan https://x.com/TPostMillennial/status/2087284980799971520" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">said Tuesday on Fox News, a year after Trump initiated the surge.


“I lived here for 15 years, and I never walked the streets of Washington, D.C. without a sidearm.

But now?

I walk around the streets, it’s safe,” he continued. “Another promise made, promise kept. DC is much safer now.

Memphis, much safer.

All the cities where President Trump has deployed federal agents and the National Guard to help local authorities, it’s all good.

My wish is places like Chicago will reach out ... rather than be a shooting gallery every weekend.”


Local leadership doesn’t share Homan’s sentiment.

“Today marks one year of the occupation of DC by federal forces, which has resulted in injury and trauma for DC residents, countless families separated by ICE, and the killing by federal law enforcement of Julian Bailey and Nolberto Meza, for which there has been no transparency or accountability,” D.C. Democratic mayoral nominee Janeese Lewis George https://x.com/Janeese4DC/status/2087206545519980561" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">wrote Tuesday. “As we continue the fight to win local autonomy and DC statehood, I will use every tool at my disposal as mayor to demand that these federal troops go home to serve their own communities and not be used for political theater and domestic military occupation.”


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