Trump's pope spat risks feud with crucial Catholic swing voters

President Trump followed a Holy Week of https://www.axios.com/2026/04/05/trump-iran-strait-hormuz-bombing-threat" target="_blank">profanity-laced threats with attacks on https://www.axios.com/2026/04/13/trump-pope-leo-weak-terrible" target="_blank">Pope Leo XIV and posting an https://www.axios.com/2026/04/13/trump-jesus-post-truth-social-backlash" target="_blank">AI self-portrait as a Jesus-like figure — risking alienating Catholic swing voters who backed him in 2024.

Why it matters: https://www.axios.com/2026/04/11/pope-leo-xiv-trump-catholic-iran-war" target="_blank">Catholics are America's largest swing religious vote, and Trump's support among them was already sliding before his latest attacks on their pontiff.

• Trump won https://www.axios.com/2026/04/11/pope-leo-xiv-trump-catholic-iran-war" target="_blank">Catholics by 10–20 points in 2024, depending on the exit poll, a dramatic swing from 2020.
• Now, he has used campaign-style rhetoric to attack their pope as a political enemy.
• "I cannot think of any parallels, at least coming from Western Christian majority countries, of such pointed and public attacks on the Pope," https://worldstudies.vcu.edu/directory/chesnut.html" target="_blank">Andrew Chesnut, Virginia Commonwealth University's Catholic studies chair, tells Axios.

Catch up quick: Trump's clash with Leo has been building, but it exploded over the Holy Week.

• Trump https://truthsocial.com/%40realDonaldTrump/posts/116351998782539414" target="_blank">posted a profanity-laced Easter morning threat to Iran: "Open the Fuckin' Strait, you crazy bastards, or you'll be living in Hell - JUST WATCH!

  Praise be to Allah."

• Defense Secretary https://www.axios.com/2026/03/31/pope-leo-trump-iran-war-us-policies" target="_blank">Pete Hegseth had urged Americans to pray for "overwhelming violence" against enemies, even as https://www.axios.com/2026/04/05/pope-leo-trump-iran-war-messages-catholic-church" target="_blank">Pope Leo used his Easter Mass to call on "those who have weapons" to "lay them down."
• https://www.axios.com/2026/04/07/trump-threaten-iran-civilization-die" target="_blank">Trump then threatened that "a whole civilization will die tonight" in Iran.

  Leo called the threat "https://www.axios.com/2026/04/07/iran-war-pope-leo-trump-civilization-threat" target="_blank">truly unacceptable."

Driving the news: On Sunday, Trump https://truthsocial.com/%40realDonaldTrump/posts/116394704213456431" target="_blank">called Leo "WEAK on Crime" and "terrible for Foreign Policy."

• Trump also targeted the conclave itself, claiming Leo was chosen only because the church "thought that would be the best way to deal with" him.
• Minutes later, Trump posted an AI image depicting himself in biblical robes healing the sick.

  He deleted it Monday and claimed it depicted him "as a doctor."

• Outside the Oval Office Monday, Trump doubled down on his criticisms of Leo: "There's nothing to apologize for.

  He's wrong."

Between the lines: Chesnut tells Axios he's seeing attrition among white Catholics, not just Latinos, as many view Trump's broadside as "an attack on their religion."

• The conclave comment may be particularly risky, said Chesnut in a Monday phone interview.

  Many Catholics believe the Holy Spirit guides cardinals in selecting a pope.

  Trump's claim Leo was chosen for political reasons challenges a process devout Catholics consider sacred.

• That Leo is the https://www.axios.com/2025/05/08/pope-conclave-white-smoke-vatican" target="_blank">first American pontiff deepens the sense of personal stake. "He's one of us.

  He's an American Catholic from Chi-Town," Chesnut said.

• He said no prominent Catholic voices have publicly defended Trump's attacks on the pope: "All the major cardinals and bishops who made pronouncements are backing the pope and criticizing Trump."

By the numbers: Catholics comprise about 1 in 5 voters nationally, per exit polls.

• In 2020, the Catholic vote split, either narrowly voting for Trump by 1 point or Biden by 5 points, according to https://apnews.com/article/election-2024-trump-catholic-voters-f73f2c74b1e21cc96ff42a671220dbdb" target="_blank">AP and https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2024/exit-polls-2024-election/" target="_blank">Washington Post exit polls.
• In 2024, Trump decisively won the group by somewhere between a 10- and 20-point margin, per the news exit polls.
• Pew data shows 7% of Biden's Catholic voters defected to Trump in 2024 while 4% went the other way.

The big picture: The Pew Research Center https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2025/06/26/voting-patterns-in-the-2024-election/" target="_blank">tracks religious voting patterns.

• While many religious groups may shift at their margins, most remain in their respective partisan camps cycle after cycle.
• Catholics are the exception — they swing, sometimes dramatically, and they're a big enough share of the electorate to decide close races.
• https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2026/02/09/white-evangelicals-remain-among-trumps-strongest-supporters-but-theyre-less-supportive-than-a-year-ago/" target="_blank">Pew surveys show Trump's approval among white Catholics fell from 59% in February 2025 to 52% in January 2026.

  Among Hispanic Catholics, it dropped from 31% to 23%.