The Canadian economy is in a “vulnerable position,” according to at least one economist, and although the latest GDP data revealed a technical recession by some definitions, not all economists are ready to declare one formally just yet.
Statistics Canada said Friday that GDP in the first quarter of 2026 fell 0.1 per cent on an annualized rate, and follows a revised one per cent annualized decline in the fourth quarter of 2025.
A technical recession is most commonly defined as two consecutive quarters with negative economic growth.
On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the agency says growth was essentially unchanged, but small movements in quarterly figures are magnified when converted into annualized rates.
Real GDP declined last October and in March, but growth was either flat or positive in the four months in between.
“Don’t get me wrong, the economy has struggled to gain any meaningful traction over the last year … but for now, we wouldn’t necessarily call it a technical recession,” TD Bank economist Marc Ercolao said to The Canadian Press.
Global's Heidi Petracek has more.
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