The IRGC paradox: Why economic collapse in Tehran won’t buy peace in Hormuz

The United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) recent decision to sever all trade and financial ties with Iran, executed alongside an escalating US naval blockade, has been hailed across Western and Gulf capitals as a decisive turning point.

By dismantling Dubai’s long-standing role as Tehran’s financial lungs, a conduit responsible for nearly a third of Iran’s vital imports and up to 80 percent of its foreign currency inflows, the coalition believes it has finally cornered the Islamic Republic.

The prevailing logic in Washington and Abu Dhabi is as clean as it is conventional: inflict unbearable economic pain, spark domestic unrest, and force the regime to surrender its maritime ambitions in the Strait of Hormuz.

This strategic calculation, while mathematically sound on paper, […]