IMF upgrades UK growth forecast as fears over impact of Iran war diminish

July update projects GDP growth of 1% this year, making UK the third fastest-growing economy in the G7

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded its growth forecast for the UK, while leaving those for other G7 countries weaker or unchanged, amid hopes the economic impact of the Iran war may be less severe than feared.

In a July update of its World Economic Outlook, which was finalised before the latest https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jul/08/iran-us-war-ceasefire-peace-agreement-strikes-strait-of-hormuz">outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East, the Washington-based organisation projected UK gross domestic product to grow by 1% this year – up 0.2 percentage points from https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/apr/14/iran-war-global-recession-imf-uk-growth-forecasts-oil-prices">its April forecast.