Campaigns pay the price for America's secular shift

Axios Axios —

America's fastest-growing religious group is also one of the hardest — and costliest — to reach: the https://www.axios.com/2024/01/24/religious-affiliation-protestant-catholic-agnostic" target="_blank">"nones."

Why it matters: https://www.axios.com/2025/12/26/great-unchurching-america-religiously-unaffiliated" target="_blank">Religiously unaffiliated Americans now make up a large and growing share of the electorate.

But without church-based networks, they're significantly more expensive for campaigns to reach and mobilize.

  • "Nones" are geographically and socially dispersed.
  • Campaigns must rely on costly digital ads, canvassing and persuasion to reach them.

By the numbers: A record 29% of Americans now identify as https://www.axios.com/2025/02/26/us-christianity-decline-pew-study" target="_blank">religiously unaffiliated — the largest single religious cohort, surpassing Catholics (19%) and evangelical Protestants (23%), per https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2024/01/24/religious-nones-in-america-who-they-are-and-what-they-believe/" target="_blank">Pew Research Center.

Zoom in: In some of the country's most secular regions — including https://www.pewresearch.org/religious-landscape-study/" target="_blank">Seattle, Portland and parts of https://www.pewresearch.org/religious-landscape-study/" target="_blank">New England — "nones" now rival or exceed Christians as a share of the population.

  • Colorado's large unaffiliated population has also pushed campaigns toward issue-based appeals — like abortion rights, climate and housing — over faith-based messaging.

Yes, but: Not all "nones" are alike — they include "spiritual but not religious" voters, atheists and agnostics.

  • The broader unaffiliated group is less likely to vote than religious Americans when controlling for age and education, previous studies show.
  • But atheists and agnostics — a more engaged subset — are about 30% more likely to turn out than the average religious voter.

Friction point: Campaigns spent about $1.40 per nonreligious voter versus roughly 45 cents per religiously affiliated voter in 2024, Sisto Abeyta, a Democratic consultant with the Nevada-based firm https://www.tri-strategies.com/" target="_blank">TriStrategies, tells Axios.

  • Candidates can reach through existing mailing lists or megachurch coffee shops, Abeyta said.

    Nonreligious voters, however, have to be sought.

  • "For religious voters, all I have to do is send a mailer and say I believe in God and apple pie," Abeyta said. "For nonreligious voters, I need to send a list of issues with links so they can verify and be ready for questions.

    It's time-consuming and costs more."

Yes, but: "When a candidate includes 'people of no faith,' that spreads like wildfire," Steven Emmert, executive director of the Secular Coalition for America, tells Axios.

  • Emmert argues that secular voters are often highly engaged and quick to respond when candidates simply acknowledge them.

Zoom out: The rise of the "nones" reflects a broader decline in https://www.axios.com/2026/05/13/americans-neighbors-socializing-less" target="_blank">traditional civic institutions — from churches to labor unions — that once made political organizing cheaper and easier.

  • As those networks fade, campaigns increasingly have to buy attention through ads and outreach.
  • This forces democracy into a pay-to-play model where only the most well-funded campaigns can afford to "buy" the attention of the unattached.

The bottom line: As the "nones" grow, campaigns face a paradox: a key voting bloc that's harder — and more expensive — to mobilize.

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