OpenAI, Forecasts and Guesses

Here’s a suggestion for OpenAI’s management: Stop issuing long-range revenue forecasts to investors.

While we at The Information love getting https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-forecasts-revenue-topping-125-billion-2029-agents-new-products-gain?rc=9byxri">our hands on these, as https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-says-business-will-burn-115-billion-2029?rc=9byxri">they https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-boost-revenue-forecasts-predicts-112-billion-cash-burn-2030?rc=9byxri">make https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-projected-least-220-million-people-will-pay-chatgpt-2030?preview=true&rc=9byxri">for good stories, it’s doubtful they’re doing OpenAI much good.

How can anyone take seriously forecasts for revenue reaching as far out as 2030? (OpenAI projects total revenue will reach $284 billion by then, compared with $13 billion last year.) 

Analyst Jim Chanos is a well-known skeptic, but https://x.com/RealJimChanos/status/2025021203262394822?s=20">his suggestion in February that the company’s projections were maybe “just guesses” likely resonated with a few people.

Take OpenAI’s forecasts https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-forecasts-advertising-hit-102-billion-2030?rc=9byxri">we reported on today about the company’s expectations for advertising.

They projected that ChatGPT will generate $2.4 billion in ad revenue this year, even though it only started testing ads https://www.theinformation.com/briefings/13f936?rc=9byxri">in February. That seems ambitious, although not as ambitious as the $11 billion forecast for next year or the $102 billion for 2030.