Get used to higher gas prices this year

Even if the Iran conflict ended now and the Strait of Hormuz fully opened, don't look for a quick return to pre-war gas prices.

Why it matters: Costlier fill-ups are the most direct and visible economic effect of the war for many Americans, and could sway midterm election races.

Driving the news: Energy Secretary Chris Wright https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aGISLRuIzVI&t=340s" target="_blank">told CNN Sunday that gas might not drop all the way down to the pre-war level — just under $3 per gallon — until next year.

• But President Trump appeared to contradict him in comments to https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5839186-trump-disagrees-energy-secretary/" target="_blank">The Hill Monday, seeing a faster drop.

The big picture: Researchers and the analysts we've talked to see slower price drops — pretty close to Wright's prediction.

• And the Iran war — and threats to oil supplies — remain so unpredictable that the country could even face more spikes.

What they're saying: The research and consulting firm S&P Global has modeled three near-term price outlooks, given the "extreme uncertainty" associated with the conflict.

• "Even in the most optimistic of these scenarios, in which flows through Hormuz recover quickly with no restrictions, U.S. retail gasoline prices are likely to face an uphill battle to return to pre-war levels until 2027," Rob Smith, the firm's director of refining and marketing, said via email.

The big picture: Other fuel analysts also caution against expecting a quick return to pre-conflict levels.

• That's even if there's a deal soon that gives shipping companies enough confidence to enter the Strait in large numbers.
• Oil price declines take a long time to completely filter through refining, wholesale fuel markets and eventually retail stations where drivers fill up.
• That's partly due to logistics, partly due to gasoline stations working through more expensive inventory and recouping the high costs they've already paid.

And that's under normal circumstances, and these are hardly normal times in energy markets.

• The throttled Strait has had secondary effects that tighten the global oil market and keeping prices high — which also filters down to gasoline pumps.
• Persian Gulf states, lacking their main export route, cut oil production by millions of barrels per day — and reviving it is a lengthy and often tricky task.

What we're watching: I asked Patrick De Haan of the price tracking and analysis firm GasBuddy how long it would take U.S. prices to reach pre-war levels if the Strait opened fully and permanently immediately.

• The short answer?

  Months.

• "I think there's a chance we could see prices in some states fall below $3 by the end of the year," said De Haan, the firm's head of petroleum analysis, said via email.

Threat level: "I don't believe they revert back to pre-war levels this year, even if Strait is returned to 'normalcy' in almost immediate fashion," said veteran fuel analyst Tom Kloza, who currently advises Gulf Oil.

• He agreed it's possible that prices in some states could get below $3 in the final few months of the year, but only in regions that typically have lower costs — the southeast, the Great Plains and some Great Lakes states.
• "The $3/gal 'average' for the U.S. is out of reach unless we sink back to $65/barrel or so for crude," he tells Axios in an email.

Catch up quick: U.S. gasoline prices averaged $4.04 per gallon on Monday, per AAA, down from the $4.16 reached earlier in the conflict that has both sent oil prices skyrocketing and made them very volatile.

Reality check: There are lots of variables in play to say the least, starting with the conflict's duration but not ending there.

• For one thing, Iran appears keen to exert more influence over the Strait, so it's not clear when or even if that normal prewar tanker traffic will return.
• And Eurasia Group analyst Gregory Brew notes via email that "residual risk of the conflict breaking out again could depress volumes."

The bottom line: Trump is looking for a near-term deal, but fuel markets operate on longer timelines — and that likely means more expensive trips this summer.