One Nation’s rise puts the next election in ‘unknown territory’ – but does Pauline Hanson really have a path to government?

Data shows the rightwing party faces an obstacle in the form of urban seats – and the effect of preference flows is harder to predict

• Get our https://www.theguardian.com/email-newsletters?CMP=cvau_sfl">breaking news email, https://app.adjust.com/w4u7jx3">free app or https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/series/full-story?CMP=cvau_sfl">daily news podcast

One Nation’s spectacular rise from a distant 6% of the vote in the last election to first or second in some recent polls has upended Australian politics.

It has also made it a lot harder to predict what exactly will happen at the next election.

Traditionally, pollsters and election experts would look at how preferences flowed in previous elections when estimating two-party preferred numbers, or translating polling into seat projections.

This was fairly predictable when almost every seat would come down to a contest between Labor and the Coalition.