Newly created Polymarket accounts win big on well-timed Iran ceasefire bets

Customers make hundreds of thousands of dollars as records show substantial bets made before announcement

A group of new accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed bets on whether the US and Iran would reach a ceasefire on Tuesday, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits for these new customers.

These bets were made even though, in the hours before a two-week ceasefire was announced on Tuesday, Donald Trump’s rhetoric had escalated sharply and there were few signals that a ceasefire deal was imminent.

Early in the day Trump had issued a warning on social media that “a whole civilization will die tonight” if Iran did not meet his demand to open the Ssrait of Hormuz by his 8pm ET deadline.