Oil prices jump after Strait of Hormuz setbacks

Oil prices are up around 6% Sunday evening after the weekend brought fresh escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict.

Why it matters: The jump after international markets opened reverses a large chunk of the https://www.axios.com/2026/04/17/hormuz-iran-oil-prices" target="_blank">sharp decline Friday, when President Trump and Iran's foreign minister claimed the Strait of Hormuz was opening to tanker traffic.

• The longer oil transit remains throttled, the longer crude prices will remain high.
• That affects U.S. drivers, because the county is deeply tethered to the global oil market despite being the world's largest producer.

The latest: The global benchmark Brent crude is up to $95.42 Sunday night, while WTI, the main U.S. reference, is at $89.77.

Catch up quick: https://www.axios.com/2026/04/19/trump-us-iran-flagged-ship-custody-gulf-oman" target="_blank">American forces seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship after it tried to bypass a U.S. naval blockade in the Gulf of Oman, President Trump said Sunday.

• It's the first seizure and the first ship fired upon since the U.S. blockade went into effect last Sunday — in response to Iran effectively holding the Strait or Hormuz hostage since the war began on Feb. 28.
• And https://www.axios.com/2026/04/18/iran-closes-strait-of-hormuz-once-again-fires-on-tankers" target="_blank">Iran said on Saturday that the Strait is again closed to traffic following threats of such action if the U.S. continued its blockade of the shipping channel.

Reality check: Even before the weekend's developments, analysts were questioning whether the Friday announcements were anywhere near enough to provide ship owners the confidence needed to resume transit.

What they're saying: U.S. average gasoline prices may not return to pre-Iran war levels under $3-per-gallon until next year, Energy Secretary Chris Wright https://www.axios.com/2026/04/19/gas-prices-below-3-dollars-2027-midterm-iran" target="_blank">said Sunday morning.

• "But prices have likely peaked, and they'll start going down, certainly with a resolution of this conflict, you'll see prices go down," he https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aGISLRuIzVI&t=340s" target="_blank">said on CNN's "State of the Union."
• Wright added that under $3 is "pretty tremendous" in inflation-adjusted terms.

  He argued the Trump administration has successfully managed the historic disruption.

By the numbers: U.S. gasoline prices reached their highest point so far this year at $4.16 per gallon earlier this month and now are at $4.05, per AAA data.

• Wright said the highest point this year is still about $1 below the Biden-era peak in 2022. (Per AAA, the 2022 peak was about $5.02, compared to $4.16 this month.)

What we're watching: Vice President JD Vance will lead a U.S. delegation for another round of talks with Iran in Islamabad before the ceasefire is scheduled to end on Tuesday night, https://www.axios.com/2026/04/19/iran-talks-pakistan-witkoff-kushner-ceasfire" target="_blank">two U.S. officials told Axios.

• The talks could provide an eleventh hour opportunity to reach a deal, or at least extend https://www.axios.com/2026/04/15/iran-war-negotiations-deal-pakistan" target="_self">the ceasefire — though Iran has yet to confirm its participation and is concerned this is all subterfuge to provide cover for a U.S. surprise attack.