Oil climbs anew on mixed signals about Iran war's future

Brent crude oil climbed more than 1% to above $110 per barrel when markets opened Sunday amid mixed signals about the https://www.axios.com/world/iran" target="_blank">Iran war that's creating unprecedented disruption to global energy flows.

Why it matters: President https://www.axios.com/2026/04/05/trump-iran-strait-hormuz-bombing-threat" target="_blank">Trump is signaling major escalation, but https://www.axios.com/2026/04/05/trump-iran-deal-power-plants" target="_blank">also told Axios' Barak Ravid that the U.S. is in "deep negotiations" with Iran.

• https://www.axios.com/politics-policy/donald-trump" target="_blank">Trump is threatening to bomb Iran's power plants and bridges starting Tuesday if the regime https://www.axios.com/2026/04/04/trump-iran-hell-threat-deadline" target="_self">doesn't open the Strait of Hormuz.

The big picture: Markets are also responding to crosscurrents about the https://www.axios.com/2026/04/04/trump-iran-hell-threat-deadline" target="_blank">Strait of Hormuz and regional infrastructure.

• Iranian https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-says-iraq-exempt-any-strait-hormuz-restrictions-2026-04-04/" target="_blank">officials say they will exempt Iraq from restrictions and a tanker carrying the nations' crude has https://x.com/Amena__Bakr/status/2040727543347900707" target="_blank">reportedly transited the waterway.
• But specifics and conditions for Iraqi crude remain unclear, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-04/iran-says-iraqi-ships-are-allowed-to-use-strait-of-hormuz" target="_blank">per Bloomberg and https://www.ft.com/content/53db0c3d-c897-4ccd-8517-5ad392dfa252?syn-25a6b1a6=1" target="_blank">the FT.
• Average U.S. gasoline prices https://gasprices.aaa.com/" target="_blank">also rose Sunday to $4.11 a gallon, up 13 cents from a week ago, per AAA.

Catch up quick: The weekend brought signs of escalation elsewhere, with the WSJ and others https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-war-news-2026/card/drone-strikes-hit-kuwait-s-ministries-complex-khKnaY36wgG7N2NvxrOD?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqfdI3fDp1lDrtLkWclI27_qioKcpjKKgYoJtCcG59v-DIrkqg16n_3o5TAFMg%3D%3D&gaa_ts=69d2e9f4&gaa_sig=nUGYLyOZ3yZxMsCqL_SUV7xhMhWlfIfMzabnkeJE7lcbbvYk2p1YLvE7KP_210aL27Rc0MyDqN33DtsD0-fhyA%3D%3D" target="_blank">reporting on drone strikes hitting oil-related sites in Kuwait and Bahrain.

• The NYT https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/04/world/middleeast/israel-strikes-mahshahr-iran-oil.html" target="_blank">reports that "Israel attacked Iran's largest petrochemical industrial complex in the city of Mahshahr on Saturday.
• Earlier Sunday, eight OPEC+ countries participating in voluntary production cuts https://www.opec.org/pr-detail/597-5-april-2026.html" target="_blank">agreed to increase their overall production target by 206,000 barrels in May.

  But it's unclear when most of these barrels might reach the market as long as the Strait remains closed.

What we're watching: Trump is slated to hold a news conference on Monday afternoon.

More from Axios:

• https://www.axios.com/2026/03/31/trump-oil-iran-covid" target="_blank">The oil market's COVID moment
• https://www.axios.com/2026/04/01/oil-prices-200-barrel-strait-hormuz" target="_blank">Get ready for $200 a barrel oil prices if Hormuz stays closed
• https://www.axios.com/2026/04/05/trump-iran-strait-hormuz-bombing-threat" target="_blank">Trump to Iran: "Open the Fuckin' Strait" or face bombing Tuesday