"We're fighting wars": Trump bets his presidency on the Pentagon

President Trump's https://www.axios.com/2026/04/03/trump-2027-budget-proposal" target="_blank">new budget lays bare the transformation of his presidency, pairing a historic surge in military spending with historic cuts to domestic programs.

Why it matters: The most powerful populist of this century is at risk of becoming what he ran against — a deficit-spending interventionist asking working-class Americans to shoulder the cost of war.

The timing couldn't be worse: Trump is https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-rating-30s-popularity-decline" target="_blank">bleeding support over the Iran war, hitting the lowest approval ratings of his second term as https://www.axios.com/2026/03/31/us-gas-price-iran-war" target="_blank">rising gas prices erode his economic credibility.

• Even as Trump insists the conflict will end soon, his $1.5 trillion https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/fiscal-year-2027-topline-fact-sheet.pdf" target="_blank">budget request for the Pentagon — plus an additional https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/02/us/politics/trump-military-spending-budget.html" target="_blank">$200 billion ask for Iran costs — would lock in a wartime level of spending.

Zoom in: At a https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-says-not-possible-us-pay-medicaid-medicare-daycare-re-fighting-w-rcna266381" target="_blank">closed-door Easter lunch on Wednesday — accidentally live-streamed and then https://www.mediaite.com/media/news/white-house-deletes-bonkers-trump-easter-event-where-he-got-compared-to-jesus/" target="_blank">scrubbed from the White House YouTube page — Trump spelled out the trade-off in the bluntest of terms.

• "We're fighting wars," Trump told guests. "We can't take care of daycare.

  Medicaid, Medicare, all these individual things.

  We have to take care of one thing: military protection.

  We have to guard the country."

• He said the burden should be on the states, which may have to raise their taxes, and that it's "not possible" for the federal government to fund all of these programs.
• White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt https://x.com/PressSec/status/2039746312371916841?s=20" target="_blank">said Trump was referring to fraud in federal programs, and that "his record proves he will always protect and strengthen Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid."

The big picture: Trump's https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/budget_fy2027.pdf" target="_blank">new budget — more a statement of the White House's goals than a legislative draft — would reorient the U.S. government around military power at the expense of virtually everything else.

• Defense spending would rise 42% — a buildup the https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/rebuilding-our-military-fact-sheet.pdf" target="_blank">White House itself says exceeds the Reagan administration's and approaches the pace of spending just before World War II.
• The massive Pentagon budget is framed as a response to an increasingly dangerous world that predates the Iran war, and envisions permanent U.S. military dominance as a governing principle.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/information-resources/budget/" target="_blank">Non-defense spending, which includes categories such as public health, scientific research, housing and education, would take a 10% cut, or $73 billion.

• The steepest cuts would fall on the EPA, down 52%; the National Science Foundation, down 55%; and the Small Business Administration, down 67%.
• Agencies spared from the proposed cuts include the Justice Department, which would get a 13% increase to "maximize its capacity to bring violent criminals to justice."

Between the lines: The administration is using a familiar argument to justify the cuts: fraud, waste and abuse.

• In a https://truthsocial.com/%40realDonaldTrump/116340682613576162" target="_blank">Truth Social post Friday, Trump christened Vice President Vance his "https://www.foxnews.com/politics/vance-tapped-fraud-czar-trump-targets-blue-states-over-taxpayer-theft" target="_blank">Fraud Czar" — directing him to focus on Democrat-led states where, Trump claims, recovered fraud could balance the federal budget.
• A year ago, https://www.axios.com/2025/04/25/elon-musk-doge-legacy" target="_blank">Elon Musk's DOGE made the same argument, initially promising $2 trillion in savings but ultimately falling far short.

  Independent analysts found their claimed savings were https://www.politico.com/news/2025/08/12/trump-doge-contract-claims-savings-inflation-00498178" target="_blank">vastly overstated, and the political backlash made Musk a pariah.

What they're saying: "Savings are achieved by reducing or eliminating woke, weaponized, and wasteful programs, and by returning state and local responsibilities to their respective governments," the White House said in a https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/fiscal-year-2027-topline-fact-sheet.pdf" target="_blank">fact sheet.

• White House officials point to examples such as grants for "environmental justice" projects and LGBTQ-focused programs as evidence of wasteful spending.
• "Under President Trump's bold leadership, every tool in the executive fiscal toolbox has been utilized to achieve real savings," White House budget director Russ Vought said in a https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/budget_fy2027.pdf" target="_blank">letter laying out the budget.

What to watch: The combination of foreign adventurism and domestic austerity cuts against the political instincts that brought Trump to power.

• The coalition that delivered Trump his second term — working-class voters, older Americans, rural communities — relies disproportionately on the programs being compressed to fund the military.
• Congressional Republicans face a brutal choice: Back a budget that guts programs their working-class constituents depend on, or break with a president who's made loyalty the price of survival.