Can Cuba outlast Marco Rubio?
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Shortly after four members of Congress https://pocan.house.gov/media-center/press-releases/reps-pocan-dexter-leger-fernandez-and-ramirez-return-cuba-fact-finding" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">returned from a fact-finding visit to Havana early last week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesperson/2026/07/further-sanctions-on-the-cuban-regimes-sources-of-funding-and-tools-of-oppression" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">announced a tranche of new sanctions against Cuba’s tourism, energy, trade and security sectors, the latest move in a months-long maximum pressure https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/may/22/marco-rubio-nears-goal-topple-cuba-government" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">campaign intended to https://www.wsj.com/world/americas/the-u-s-is-actively-seeking-regime-change-in-cuba-by-the-end-of-the-year-1d0f178a" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">overthrow the island’s government by year’s end.
Reps.
Mark Pocan (D-Wis.), Teresa Leger-Fernández (D-N.M.), Maxine Dexter (D-Ore.) and Delia Ramirez (D-Ill.) heard first-hand from a diverse range of Cubans that the de facto https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/20/world/americas/cuba-oil-blockade-trump.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">fuel embargo and escalating https://www.akingump.com/en/insights/alerts/cuba-executive-order-exposes-non-us-companies-and-financial-institutions-to-significant-new-sanctions-risk" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">secondary sanctions against foreign firms in Cuba are strangling the very people the U.S. claims to support.
The group https://apnews.com/article/cuba-embargo-congress-pocan-legerfernandez-dexter-ramirez-e369a23097dcf104d424af88cdc2134a" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">referred to the conditions they saw in the Cuban capital as a “silent Gaza,” contradicting the Trump administration’s https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesperson/2026/06/further-sanctions-on-the-cuban-regimes-revenue-generation-network-fact-sheet/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">claims that its brazen regime change gambit has only targeted the Cuban government.
I accompanied the congressional delegation and have lived, worked and traveled to the island for over a decade.
I can say confidently that, when the farmers, doctors, religious leaders, aid organizations, private entrepreneurs, and foreign diplomats with whom the members https://youtu.be/zdYMMgCqRH4?t=3295" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">met say the crisis in Cuba is more dire than at any point in recent memory, they mean it.
Nationwide https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/cubas-national-electric-grid-collapses-third-time-july-state-media-says-2026-07-14/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">blackouts are now a near-weekly phenomenon.
With no electricity, access to running https://apnews.com/article/cuba-water-shortages-oil-fuel-us-blockade-4cffcda6aa913ef5e4540b91b1568e3b" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">water is increasingly scarce.
Children are not attending https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/22/world/americas/cuba-oil-gas-crisis-schools-education.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">school because teachers can’t get to work.
Neither can most https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20260618-drastic-restrictions-on-public-transport-take-effect-in-cuba" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">workers, so private businesses are https://www.wsj.com/world/americas/foreign-businesses-are-fleeing-cuba-as-its-economy-collapses-f9b369bf" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">shuttering.
With scant https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/may/14/cuba-us-energy-blockade-oil-fuel-petrol-runs-out" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">fuel and few international https://www.newsweek.com/cuba-faces-catastrophe-key-european-airline-stops-flights-12019932" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">flights, https://www.barrons.com/news/tourism-plummets-in-us-blockaded-cuba-9c0562cf" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">tourism and the https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/06/americas/cuba-hotels-us-tourists-latam-intl" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">income it generates for independent Cubans are plummeting. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/26/world/americas/cubas-health-system-us-oil-blockade.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Hospitals and clinics are running on fumes, as https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/31/world/americas/cuba-trash-fuel-blockade.html?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">trash piles up on street corners, fueling https://www.crisis24.com/articles/cuba-faces-mounting-health-risks-amid-disease-outbreaks-and-infrastructure-strain" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">mosquito-borne and https://www.martinoticias.com/a/brote-de-v%C3%B3mitos-y-diarreas-en-la-habana-en-medio-de-apagones-y-escasez-de-agua/469811.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">viral illnesses. https://www.ft.com/content/859ff727-3a8b-42df-a6d8-7d55ed0e8264?syn-25a6b1a6=1" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Food is spoiling in ports, fields and refrigerators, as Cubans see their rapidly devaluating local https://apnews.com/article/cuba-us-dollar-exchange-rate-trump-sanctions-35d92af89c53eb2d061bcef7445a09d3" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">currency waste away to nothing.
Add to that the near-constant threats of U.S. military action.
Some are more overt, like increased U.S. https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/10/americas/us-spy-flights-cuba-latam-intl" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">surveillance flights off Cuban coasts and news https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cuba-military-options-pentagon/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">reports of plans to send in the 101st Airborne Division; others are more implicit, like the recent https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/21/politics/trump-cuba-castro-indictment-iran-war-analysis" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">indictment of Raúl Castro and the https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/07/20/state-dept-again-deems-cuba-threat-amid-talk-us-push-regime-change/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">release of a State Department https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/Cuba-Report.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">report referring to Cuba as a nearby terror hub plotting to conquer the U.S. Cubans are living on https://theintercept.com/2026/03/24/cuba-oil-blockade-trump-rubio/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">edge, fearing that things will get https://newlinesmag.com/reportage/amid-us-pressure-and-a-deepening-crisis-cubans-are-braced-for-change/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">worse before they improve.
In this context, it’s hard to see how a diplomatic https://responsiblestatecraft.org/trump-cuba-deal/" target="_self">solution or a https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/02/05/deal-trump-cuba-oil-tourism-blockade/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">deal to resolve this slow-burning war of attrition — which https://www.barrons.com/news/mexican-president-offers-to-act-as-mediator-between-us-cuba-4658e03c" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Mexico, the https://responsiblestatecraft.org/us-cuba-talks/" target="_self">Vatican, https://en.cibercuba.com/noticias/2026-06-22-u1-e129488-s27061-nid333022-panama-ofrece-mediar-estados-unidos-cuba" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Panama, https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/haiti/article316428795.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">CARICOM, and the https://www.reutersconnect.com/item/un-chief-guterres-wants-meaningful-dialogue-around-cuba-crisis/dGFnOnJldXRlcnMuY29tLDIwMjY6bmV3c21sX1ZBOTk1MTEyMDUyMDI2UlAx" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">U.N. have all offered to mediate — could https://responsiblestatecraft.org/deal-cuba-trump/" target="_self">prevail.
Still, direct talks between U.S. and Cuban authorities have occurred.
The State Department’s Michael Kozak and Jeremy Lewin https://apnews.com/article/cuba-trump-rubio-energy-blockade-26b89fa6c057eb419d099a39e38d5b98" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">met with their Cuban counterparts on April 10.
CIA Director John Ratcliffe https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/14/us/politics/cia-director-visits-cuba.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">met with Cuban intelligence officials on May 14.
U.S. SOUTHCOM Commander Francis Donovan https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/29/politics/southcom-chief-cuba-military-meeting-guantanamo-bay" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">held fenceline meetings with top Cuban generals at Guantanamo Bay on May 29.
Secretary Rubio himself has https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2026/02/27/trump-cuba-shootout-takeover-oil-venezuela-rubio/88901748007/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">spoken and https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2026/03/23/marco-rubio-cuba-talks-trump/89007087007/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">met with the grandson of former Cuban president Raúl Castro, https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/28/world/americas/castro-family-cuba-energy-crisis-trump.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Raul Guillermo Rodríguez Castro.
Known as The Crab, Castro’s grandson has liaised with https://www.providencejournal.com/story/news/politics/government/2026/07/02/vic-mellor-cuba-foreign-agent-raul-castro-rhode-island-congressional-candidate/90782984007/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">U.S. and https://eltoque.com/quien-es-ahmed-faisal-el-asesor-del-regimen-que-dice-que-los-cubanoamericanos-recuperaran-sus-propiedades-en-cuba" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">foreign https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/property/2026/06/17/cuba-turns-to-foreign-capital-to-rescue-collapsing-tourism-industry/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">figures in Trump’s https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2026/06/06/vic-mellor-flynn-ties-cuba-castro-meeting/90435720007/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">orbit, https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2026/07/06/castro-grandson-trump-deal-cuba-exclusive/90784545007/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">presented himself as a Cuban version of Venezuela’s Delcy Rodríguez, and even met recently with former Trump Organization executives in Havana, according to sources who have spoken with RS.
Nonetheless, all signs indicate that progress in bilateral talks made back in March — when the U.S. “https://responsiblestatecraft.org/cuba-russian-oil/" target="_self">allowed” a Russian fuel tanker to dock in Havana, providing momentary https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/cuba-sees-short-term-relief-russian-oil-begins-flow-2026-04-23/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">relief for Cuba’s economy — has largely https://www.foreignaffairs.com/cuba/cubas-only-choice" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">stalled, and other https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/cuba/article316450867.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">unconventional https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/cuba-trump-secret-letter-marco-rubio-1951dc9a" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">backchannels have petered out.
A carefully hatched https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/cuba/article316066939.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">plan to send regular tankers of U.S. fuel to Cuba’s private sector was https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesperson/2026/06/sanctioning-cubas-state-owned-oil-and-gas-company-union-cuba-petroleo" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">thwarted by Rubio within a day of its https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/11/world/americas/us-cuba-trump-energy-fuel.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">announcement, while Spanish hotel chains https://www.cigaraficionado.com/article/melia-closing-operations-in-cuba" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Meliá and https://translatingcuba.com/iberostar-confirms-it-no-longer-operates-any-hotel-in-cuba-the-same-day-melia-announces-its-withdrawal/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Iberostar; French and German https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/frances-cma-cgm-suspends-cuba-bookings-after-us-executive-order-2026-05-17/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">shipping companies CMA CGM and Hapag Lloyd; and U.S. https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/cuba-suspend-visa-mastercard-transactions-200025731.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">credit card giants Visa and Mastercard have all suspended business on the island.
It’s possible this could be all according to https://en.cibercuba.com/noticias/2026-05-18-u1-e208933-s27061-nid329616-hay-empezar-cero-sera-super-facil-jorge-plantea" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">plan, and that a https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/07/01/michael-bustamante-cuba-trump-venezuela-rubio-regime-change-blockade/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">soft https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/trump-raises-possibility-friendly-takeover-cuba-coming-talks-havana-rcna261081" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">takeover of Cuba’s main industries by President Donald Trump and https://www.univision.com/local/miami-wltv/trump-dice-dueno-inter-miami-jorge-mas-podran-celebrar-en-cuba" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">some of his https://www.youtube.com/shorts/ll1v8yfcwLc" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">friends and https://en.cibercuba.com/noticias/2026-03-16-u1-e208933-s27061-nid323321-trump-menciona-familia-fanjul-al-hablar-futuro-cuba" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">donors is in the works.
After the largest foreign investor in Cuba, Canadian mining firm Sherritt International, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-05-15/sherritt-international-ending-operations-in-cuba-after-us-sanctions" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">announced its departure earlier this year, it https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-05-20/sherritt-international-turns-to-ray-washburne-as-it-ponders-cuba-future" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">said it would seek State Department approval to sell its stake in a nickel and cobalt joint venture to former Trump adviser Ray Washburne.
An Australian gold mining firm recently https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-07/antilles-pitches-us-buyer-plan-for-sanctioned-cuba-gold-mine" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">followed a similar path, saying it’s also in talks with the State Department.
With hundreds of prime hotels sitting https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2026/05/27/could-donald-trump-save-cubas-economy" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">near-empty, it’s plausible that U.S. hotel chains, including Trump’s, could snatch them up at basement-bargain prices.
Fresh sanctions against Cuba’s https://apnews.com/article/us-sanctions-cuba-gaesa-moa-nickel-fe68b795495c84760a392db2affc10b9" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">military and https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/trump-administration-expands-cuba-sanctions-targeting-tourism-energy-and-trade-sectors/3833212/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">state-run tourism companies have forced authorities to initiate privatizations of key assets, according to sources familiar with the matter.
Emirati and Egyptian investors with apparent Trump connections are reportedly https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/economy/2026/06/19/cuba-signs-deals-attracting-global-business-but-washington-holds-key/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">advising Cuban trade officials as they seek approval for the development of “Trump Island” on a largely https://www.elnuevoherald.com/noticias/america-latina/cuba-es/article278446704.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">military-administered cay in the northern-central part of the archipelago.
And the container terminal at Cuba’s main Mariel Port and the leading international business center in Havana were both recently https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2026/06/27/sanctioned-cuban-military-group-cedes-key-assets-sources" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">stripped of any military affiliation.
Cuban, Cuban-American and foreign businesspeople are engaged in advanced talks to assume management or ownership of some of these properties, according to sources familiar with discussions.
These transfers could provide an https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-09/how-cuba-can-rebuild-its-economy-with-help-from-the-us" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">off-ramp that would effectively dismantle the Cuban military-led conglomerate https://ca.news.yahoo.com/trump-administration-cuba-sanctions-pressure-182002041.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">GAESA and give private actors the https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesperson/2026/02/secretary-of-state-marco-rubio-remarks-to-press-5" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">upper hand in Cuba’s fuel markets.
Yet Rubio, despite publicly seeking these objectives for years, is https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/cuba/article316491687.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">blocking even these https://x.com/ric23/status/2076725582616842730?s=20" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">workarounds.
In recent https://x.com/StateDept/status/2079910195761647718?s=20" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">statements, Rubio has said he would be realistic by https://responsiblestatecraft.org/rubio-cuba-deal/" target="_self">accepting gradual economic change on the island and directly https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20260603-cuba-has-technocrats-willing-to-negotiate-rubio-says" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">engaging with select Cuban leaders.
Yet his actions indicate that his https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/20/us/politics/marco-rubio-cuba.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">maximalist stance toward the island — demanding nothing short of drastic political transformation and wholesale privatization of entire industries — remains, even as Trump demonstrates a https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-eYblJ8P6r4" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">willingness to strike immediate deals he considers favorable to him and his allies.
For now, Rubio seems intent on inducing economic https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-26/trump-aims-to-steer-cuba-toward-greater-dependence-on-the-us" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">dependence on the U.S. without precipitating outright https://apnews.com/article/trump-rubio-cuba-castro-intervention-a7a470404229ce2cf89b10501e8692b7" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">collapse, cutting off every possible source of https://www.economist.com/interactive/1843/2026/07/17/the-doctors-keeping-cuba-on-life-support" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">income to the Cuban economy while channeling the https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2026/03/i-wish-i-could-send-more-how-exiled-cubans-are-keeping-the-island-alive/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">food, https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/u-s-fuel-exports-to-cuba-rise-as-blackouts-and-shortages-continue-on-the-island/3813301/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">fuel, https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2026/03/i-wish-i-could-send-more-how-exiled-cubans-are-keeping-the-island-alive/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">remittances and https://www.latinousa.org/2026/04/17/cubaisnext/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">consumer goods that do enter the island through authorized Florida-based https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/cuba/article315738772.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">firms.
The U.S. has also peppered in modest https://apnews.com/article/united-state-cuba-humanitarian-flight-7b07aff4241d72411c3ea6a41fdd4577" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">shipments of humanitarian assistance for https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/cuba/article316580456.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">thousands — not millions — of Cubans as part of a broader https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesperson/2026/07/united-states-and-catholic-relief-services-send-first-humanitarian-flight-to-cuba-under-secretary-rubios-new-100-million-assistance-commitment/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">commitment to deliver $100m in aid through religious organizations over an unspecified period of time.
The https://www.thenation.com/article/world/united-nations-cuba-humanitarian-crisis-us-sanctions-fuel-shortages/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">U.N. and Cuba’s allies in https://mofa.gov.vn/en/web/ministry-of-foreign-affairs/detail/chi-tiet/vietnam-cuba-promote-comprehensive-cooperation-in-new-development-stage-60597-1074.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Vietnam, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/24/cuba-thanks-china-for-rice-shipment-amid-worsening-humanitarian-conditions" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">China, https://apnews.com/article/cuba-aid-ship-mexico-uruguay-havana-us-tensions-44f04d853c28504fa4bae040652d9803" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Mexico and https://en.cibercuba.com/noticias/2026-07-14-u1-e135253-s27061-nid335043-brasil-envia-48-toneladas-leche-polvo-cuba-medio" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Brazil have provided modest amounts of food, medical supplies and solar panels, but this aid is no substitute for the billions of dollars in trade and investment needed to reverse the precipitous decline in Cubans’ standard of living.
Cuban authorities have sought to court that foreign capital by https://apnews.com/article/cuba-economic-reforms-us-embargo-diaz-canel-trump-rubio-b6b8d4319d4291dde47084baa624c795" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">announcing the country’s most sweeping economic reforms in six decades, but these will have little immediate impact if not https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2026/07/02/promised-reforms-could-change-cuba-radically" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">accompanied by the lifting of U.S. restrictions and the rollout of clear https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/24/world/americas/cuba-economy-overhaul-communism-trump.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">regulations providing potential investors with legal certainty.
With Trump https://www.facebook.com/TreyYingst/videos/president-trump-a-lot-of-things-are-going-to-happen-in-cuba-over-the-next-maybe-/1763645165085148/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">warning that “a lot of things are going to happen in Cuba in the next couple of months,” and with life in Cuba growing increasingly https://www.thisamericanlife.org/892/trapped-on-a-bus/act-two-4" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">untenable, the Cuban people are running out of time.
For now, their government is wagering that it can survive at least until next January, when Democrats will likely retake one or both chambers of Congress and seek to restrain further economic or military escalation against the island.
“I don’t feel like there are any serious negotiations going on,” Rep. Pocan told a group of reporters in Washington on Tuesday.
“We call on the Trump administration to… [engage] in serious and comprehensive negotiations with Cuban authorities that…provide a much-needed solution for a Cuban population that doesn’t have any more time to wait,” the four members jointly https://pocan.house.gov/media-center/press-releases/reps-pocan-dexter-leger-fernandez-and-ramirez-return-cuba-fact-finding" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">wrote.