The massive economic impact of the global energy crisis

Even if the Iran war ended now and the Strait of Hormuz reopened, the crisis has lasted long enough to bring a meaningful and damaging toll worldwide.

Why it matters: "What began as a disruption in a key energy corridor is now feeding through the entire global economy," the UN's trade and development arm https://unctad.org/news/hormuz-disruption-deepens-global-economic-strain-across-trade-prices-and-finance" target="_blank">said in an analysis.

Driving the news: Fresh outlooks are landing that take stock of the war's effect.

• The UN expects global economic growth to slow from 2.9% in 2025 to 2.6% this year, and that's without further escalation.
• It's not just about energy.

  Goods needed for fertilizers and much more transit the region — only right now, they don't.

Threat level: Developing nations are hardest hit, though Europe is also reliant in the Strait, and the U.S. is tethered to global oil markets.

• With higher prices and messed-up supply chains, the UN sees the growth in global merchandise trade slowing from 4.7% last year to 1.5%-2.5% in 2026.

"As uncertainty rises, investors are shifting away from riskier assets, selling stocks, bonds and currencies in developing countries," its finds.

• Borrowing costs have already risen in Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, developing Asian nations, https://www.axios.com/2026/03/23/uk-bonds-iran-oil-shock" target="_blank">the UK and elsewhere.

Zoom out: "In some regions, the effects are already acute.

Southeast Asia faces fuel shortages and rationing that threaten industrial activity," https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/energysource/how-the-iran-war-could-shift-energy-policies-around-the-world/" target="_blank">Atlantic Council analysts said in a weekend post.

Zoom in: The International Energy Agency has https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/2026-energy-crisis-policy-response-tracker" target="_blank">started publishing a country-by-country look at emergency measures.

• A small snapshot: Bangladesh is rationing fuel, limiting air-conditioning levels (something multiple other nations are doing) and closing universities.
• India is capping industrial gas use; the Philippines https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/philippine-president-declares-energy-emergency-over-middle-east-conflict-risk-2026-03-24/" target="_blank">declared a national energy emergency; Korea is asking car owners to avoid driving one day per week.
• Meanwhile, many nations are cutting fuel taxes and boosting subsidies, which can strain budgets.

What's next: More U.S. and global data points.

• The Labor Department will release U.S. inflation data for March on Friday — the first Consumer Price Index that will capture some of the war's effect.
• The Energy Department drops revised oil and fuel price outlooks tomorrow.
• International Monetary Fund head Kristalina Georgieva will give a speech Thursday on the global economic outlook, with the fund publishing detailed analyses the following week.