Trump tries to defy gravity with Beijing friendship summit

President Trump's https://www.axios.com/2026/05/13/trump-china-investment-trade" target="_blank">summit with Xi Jinping was staged as a reunion between old friends, concluding Friday with a private tour of Zhongnanhai, the Chinese Communist Party's leadership compound.

• Strolling the gardens, Trump declared the blooms around him "the most beautiful roses anyone has ever seen." Xi promised to send him seeds.

Why it matters: The warm public choreography of the past two days conceals a harsher reality: nearly every force shaping https://www.axios.com/2026/04/19/china-iran-war-winner-us-military" target="_blank">U.S.-China relations is pulling them apart.

• Trump spent the trip pitching closer ties with China after a https://www.axios.com/2025/04/16/trump-tariffs-china-bilateral-trade" target="_blank">decade of decoupling that he, more than any other American president, helped set in motion.

Driving the news: As Trump and Xi entered a working lunch Friday, the summit had already produced a package of modest deliverables, building on the trade truce the two leaders struck last fall.

• Trump declared "we've made some fantastic trade deals" at Friday's closing meeting at Zhongnanhai, and https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/14/china-boeing-order-airplanes-737-max-trump-says.html" target="_blank">told Fox News earlier that China had committed to buying 200 Boeing jets.
• U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-15/us-expects-dramatic-agricultural-purchases-by-china-greer-says" target="_blank">U.S. expects China to commit to at least $10 billion in annual U.S. agricultural purchases over the next three years, on top of existing soybean commitments.
• The two sides are also negotiating a joint "Board of Trade" covering about $30 billion in non-sensitive goods.

What they're saying: Trump's public characterizations of Xi's Iran posture left more questions than answers.

• Trump https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-15/us-expects-dramatic-agricultural-purchases-by-china-greer-says" target="_blank">told Fox News' Sean Hannity that Xi pledged China would not supply Iran with military equipment. "But at the same time," Trump added, "they buy a lot of their oil there, and they'd like to keep doing that."
• At Zhongnanhai on Friday, Trump said he and Xi had discussed Iran. "We don't want them to have a nuclear weapon," he said. "We want the straits open."

Zoom in: China hawks in Trump's administration worked in the days and weeks leading up to the summit to https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/14/us/politics/china-us-sanctions-ai-cybersecurity.html" target="_blank">undercut the case for rapprochement.

• The State Department https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesperson/2026/05/disrupting-irans-overseas-military-procurement-networks" target="_blank">sanctioned three Chinese firms for providing satellite imagery that helped Iran strike U.S. forces in the Middle East.
• The Treasury Department https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/29/us-treasury-warns-sanctions-china-refineries-iran-oil-malaysian-blend.html" target="_blank">sanctioned multiple Chinese "teapot" refineries for buying billions of dollars of Iranian oil.

  Beijing responded by ordering companies https://www.stephensonharwood.com/insights/chinas-first-use-of-blocking-rules-against-us-sanctions-on-chinese-refineries/" target="_blank">not to comply with U.S. sanctions.

• A White House memo written by Trump science adviser Michael Kratsios https://www.axios.com/2026/04/23/us-china-ai-theft-distillation" target="_blank">accused Chinese entities of "industrial-scale" campaigns to steal frontier AI from American companies.
• Federal prosecutors https://www.justice.gov/usao-cdca/pr/arcadia-mayor-federally-charged-acting-illegal-agent-peoples-republic-china" target="_blank">unsealed charges against the mayor of Arcadia, Calif., for acting as an illegal agent of the Chinese government — 48 hours before Trump landed in Beijing.

The intrigue: Leaks from inside the government paint an even more hostile picture of the U.S.-China rivalry.

• A U.S. intelligence assessment https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/05/13/china-gains-major-edge-us-amid-iran-war-us-intelligence-finds/" target="_blank">reported by the Washington Post found that China is exploiting the Iran war to gain ground over the U.S. diplomatically, militarily and economically.
• The https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/13/us/politics/china-iran-weapons-trump-xi.html" target="_blank">New York Times reported Wednesday that Chinese companies are negotiating clandestine arms sales to Iran, routing weapons through third countries — including in Africa — to hide their origins.
• Trump https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5878305-trump-xi-iran-military-equipment/" target="_blank">told Fox News's Sean Hannity that Xi assured him China would not supply Iran with military equipment. "But at the same time," he added, "they buy a lot of their oil there, and they'd like to keep doing that."

The other side: Xi — while https://apnews.com/article/trump-xi-china-iran-trade-a1d63a711a037472f5c1c330c2120bd5" target="_blank">warning Trump that mishandling Taiwan could provoke "an extremely dangerous situation" — played his own part in the summit's friendly choreography.

• Beijing rolled out the red carpet for https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/may/13/marco-rubio-china-visit-new-character-name-trump-summit" target="_blank">Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who remains sanctioned for his criticism of China's human rights abuses as a U.S. senator.
• At Thursday's state banquet, Xi told Trump that China's "great rejuvenation" — the Communist Party's signature political slogan — and "Make America Great Again" could go "hand in hand."

Between the lines: Both leaders have clear incentives to maintain the truce, for now at least.

• Trump doesn't need any more election-year economic shocks, particularly after Xi's crippling ban on rare earth mineral exports during last year's trade war.
• And Xi likely believes "strategic stability" with the U.S. will help China push ahead with its own priorities, from military modernization to high-tech dominance.
• As the leaders play nice, their governments are working furiously in the background to reduce their dependence on one another.

The big picture: Trump's push for closer economic ties is https://www.axios.com/2026/05/13/trump-china-investment-trade" target="_blank">at odds with with a U.S. political climate that has spent the last several years treating Chinese capital as radioactive.

• Amid growing security concerns, Chinese investment in the U.S. has collapsed from roughly $45 billion in 2016 to less than $3 billion last year, according to https://cbm.rhg.com/research-note/why-chinese-fdi-us-wont-rebound" target="_blank">Rhodium Group.
• Treasury Secretary https://www.politico.com/news/2026/05/14/bessent-trade-china-beijing-00921177" target="_blank">Scott Bessent said the two sides are discussing a framework for steering Chinese investment into non-sensitive sectors — a sign of how deeply national security fears have constrained economic ties.

The bottom line: Two aging nationalist leaders, presiding over the world's most dangerous rivalry, spent the week performing a friendship neither of their governments seems willing to sustain.