Your Easter candy is still expensive — even with cheaper cocoa

Axios Axios —

https://www.axios.com/2026/02/13/trump-tariffs-chocolate-prices-valentines-day" target="_blank">Cocoa prices have plunged from last year's record highs — but shoppers are still paying more for https://www.axios.com/2026/03/23/easter-candy-popular-reeses-us" target="_blank">Easter chocolate, Wells Fargo says.

Why it matters: Once food companies raise prices, they're slow to bring them back down when ingredient costs fall — even as consumers are expected to spend a record $24.9 billion on Easter this year, according to the https://nrf.com/media-center/press-releases/easter-spending-expected-to-reach-a-record-24-9-billion" target="_blank">National Retail Federation.

State of play: Major chocolate companies raised prices by up to 20% during the cocoa spike in 2024-2025, per a Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute report.

  • For Easter, prices are up again — with chocolate costing shoppers about 14% more year over year in early 2026, according to Datasembly data.
  • Over the past five years, the cost of a full Easter basket has jumped 71%, with roughly three-quarters of that increase driven by candy, according to a https://couponfollow.com/research/easter-basket-inflation?t=7" target="_blank">CouponFollow analysis.

Cocoa prices — an upstream input for retail chocolate — have dropped from over $12,000 per metric ton in late 2024 to about $3,000 to $3,300 today.

  • But there are a number of reasons why chocolate prices haven't followed.

Between the lines: Most https://www.axios.com/2025/04/18/easter-candy-2025-reeses-eggs-chocolate" target="_blank">Easter candy was made months ago, when cocoa was still far more expensive.

  • Chocolate makers are also still working through higher-cost cocoa they locked in earlier — and protecting margins after the recent price shock.
  • Executives at companies like Hershey and Mondelez say they remain hedged above current cocoa prices, limiting how quickly they can pass along savings.

Zoom in: Wells Fargo's David Branch describes current pricing as a "reset," with structurally higher costs and sourcing risks keeping pressure on prices.

  • "What we're seeing in the U.S., including higher prices, smaller sizes and less cocoa in some products, reflects longer-term adjustments," Jonathan Horn, CEO of Treefera, tells Axios.
  • He added prices are "likely to stay high through 2026 and could climb further if supply expectations don't hold."

What we're watching: Relief is expected — just not yet.

  • Supply is improving, with a modest global surplus expected this year.
  • Branch said consumers may start to see lower chocolate prices later this year, "hopefully in time for Halloween."

The bottom line: Cocoa prices have cooled.

Chocolate prices haven't — and consumers are still buying, with more than a quarter of adults purchasing Easter candy for themselves, according to a https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/easter-baskets-are-no-longer-just-for-kids--and-adults-are-ready-to-admit-it-302721620.html?tc=eml_cleartime" target="_blank">Ferrero survey.

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