"I wish none of this had happened": GOP's buyer's remorse on redistricting

Buyer's remorse is hitting House Republicans over their https://www.axios.com/2026/04/22/trump-redistricting-war-backfiring-virginia-gop" target="_blank">mid-cycle redistricting war — a strategy meant to protect their majority that's now deeply in danger of backfiring.

Why it matters: What began as an effort to create more GOP-controlled seats — and avoid a Democratic takeover that would weaken President Trump — now could be a wash, or even add to Democrats' edge.

• At Trump's request, Republicans kicked off the unusual mid-decade redistricting push in https://www.axios.com/local/san-antonio/2026/03/16/texas-primary-election-redistricting-house" target="_blank">Texas.

  But that effort triggered counter-moves in Democrat-led California and https://www.axios.com/local/richmond/2026/04/22/virginia-redistricting-vote-passes-house-control" target="_blank">Virginia, where voters on Tuesday approved a new map that could leave the GOP with just one seat, down from five.

• "It's not for me to say ... because really, it wasn't my decision," NRCC chair Richard Hudson (R-N.C.), who's tasked with protecting the GOP's House majority, told Axios when asked if the strategy was worth it.

Others were more blunt.

• "I wish none of this had happened," said California Rep. https://www.axios.com/2026/03/09/republican-kiley-gop-indepedent-mike-johnson" target="_blank">Kevin Kiley, a former Republican who became an independent last month but still caucuses with the GOP.

The big picture: Republicans privately have expressed skepticism about the aggressive redistricting strategy for months amid increasing pressure from Trump, who's said he fears a Democrat-led House would hand him his third impeachment.

• But now, some lawmakers are publicly saying the blowback may outweigh the gains.
• "I think it is a mistake in hindsight," Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) told Axios, "They thought they could just do Texas and nobody else is gonna respond?"
• "We started a war, and you've got to play chess, think three or four moves ahead," he added.
• "I don't think it's favorable for anybody in America, redistricting," Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) said. "It's a race to the bottom."

Kiley, whose district became significantly bluer under California's new maps, said: "I wish that cooler heads had prevailed, and we'd be able to reach some sort of truce on this before it snowballed into what it's become."

• Kiley has been sounding the alarm for months on the dangers of mid-cycle redistricting, and pleaded with his colleagues to take up legislation to ban it.
• "This has created a lot of needless chaos," he said, but "maybe there's a chance to come together and say, 'Enough is enough.' "

Reality check: Republicans are hoping that Virginia's Supreme Court will invalidate Tuesday's vote.

But overturning a constitutional amendment that's just been ratified by voters won't be easy.

• On Wednesday, a lower state court judge threw out Tuesday's election results.

  But that Republican-appointed judge previously had been overruled by the state Supreme Court, and Virginia's attorney general quickly appealed to the high court again on Wednesday.

• Neither party is guaranteed to win the seats these new maps put in play across seven states.
• In an election expected to test voters' attitudes about Trump's handling of the economy, the Iran war and other issues, voters' views on the redistricting derby also could be a factor.

What's next: All eyes will be on Florida, where state lawmakers could draw a new map to give Republicans up to five seats.

Not all Florida Republicans are on board, however.

• "I feel very confident that we could draw two new districts ... three, if we're feeling particularly froggy," Rep. Kat Cammack (R-Fla.) said. "I do have some concerns about five," as some have proposed.

Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Fla.) has been warning about slipping GOP support among Latinos — a concern being echoed among some Republicans in Texas.

• Texas' new map partly relies on Latinos turning out for Republicans as enthusiastically as they did in 2024, and any redrawing of Florida's could as well.
• "I like my lines," Salazar said when asked if she supports the redistricting push in Florida.
• "I can't control this at all," Rep. Mike Haridopolos (R-Fla.) told Axios. "Some people have expressed concerns that if you attempt to draw five, you could draw up a lot of [GOP] seats that might become vulnerable.

  These are the realities of when you draw lines."

Zoom out: House Speaker https://www.axios.com/2026/04/15/mike-johnson-fisa-conservative-revolt" target="_blank">Mike Johnson (R-La.) told Axios he wasn't concerned about a new Florida map backfiring, adding that he supports Florida moving forward with redistricting.

• House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) shot back: "Trump and Republicans launched this gerrymandering war, and we've made clear as Democrats that we're going to finish it."