Russia’s economy is growing faster than expected. It probably won’t last.

Last week, Rosstat published seemingly encouraging news about the state of the economy: Russia’s GDP grew by 1.3% year-over-year in the second quarter, after shrinking by 0.2% in the first three months of 2026.

This result even exceeded the expectations of the Central Bank of Russia and the Economic Development Ministry.

But it’s too early to talk about the economy’s recovery: the quarterly growth was driven by temporary factors.

Why is there little reason to expect the rebound to become a long-term trend?

How did a sober analysis of Russia’s prospects lead to the dismissal of one of the country’s most respected economists?

And what risks does the growing budget hole pose?