As war drags on, Ukraine’s population is collapsing

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As the war in Ukraine trudges through its fifth year, deaths there https://opendatabot.ua/analytics/birth-death-2026" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">now outnumber births at a nearly four-to-one ratio.

https://t.co/pQe6EmEaxy" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">According to https://minjust.gov.ua/files/general/2026/07/21/20260721125445-65.xlsx" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">figures published by the Ukrainian Ministry of Justice this week, Ukraine recorded 73,292 births and 259,853 deaths in the first half of 2026.

Ukraine thus records about 12,000 births per month, a https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66376561" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">sharp drop from the approximately 23,000 births per month it recorded before the war began.

Birth rates were notably low in Ukraine’s Donetsk region, which is located at the war’s front line and is now https://www.aa.com.tr/en/eurasia/putin-claims-full-control-of-ukraines-luhansk-most-of-donetsk-zaporizhzhia-regions/3956938" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">mostly occupied by Russia. https://hromadske.ua/en/society/268075-smertnist-v-ukrayini-mayze-vchetvero-perevyshchuye-narodzuvanist-opendatabot" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Only 134 births were recorded there during the first half of 2026.

“Few people are willing to bring children into the world while the country remains at war,” Marta Havryshko, a scholar who focuses on the Russo-Ukraine war, wrote https://x.com/HavryshkoMarta/status/2079934432945791043" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">on X. “Every additional year of fighting deepens the demographic crisis and pushes Ukraine closer to becoming an empty land.”

In addition, the war has sent https://www.reuters.com/world/ukrainians-scattered-across-europe-trapped-limbo-by-war-2026-02-21/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">millions of Ukrainians abroad.

“I don't think it's likely that Europe or other supporters of Ukraine can muster the kind of massive financial investment in a post-war reconstruction […] that would allow millions of Ukrainians to go back home,” Quincy Institute non-resident fellow Almut Rochowanski told RS.

“Ukrainian refugees abroad would need to know that they're going home to functioning housing, schools, hospitals and sufficient incomes,” Rochowanski said. “That is a tall order.”

The new population figures come as fewer Ukrainians are demonstrating a desire to fight.

Earlier this month, anti-conscription protests https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20260714-what-the-lviv-draft-riot-tells-us-about-ukraine-struggle-send-men-fight" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">rocked the western city of Lviv.

Ukraine also https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-draft-dodgers-defence-minister-9.7045665" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">has about two million draft-dodgers and about 200,000 military deserters, according to the country’s former defense minister.

In line with polling it https://responsiblestatecraft.org/ukraine-war-2673868243/" target="_self">conducted last year, Gallup https://news.gallup.com/poll/693203/ukrainian-support-war-effort-collapses.aspx" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">found last month that Ukrainians’ support for continued fighting remains low.

Only 24% of respondents told Gallup that Ukraine should keep fighting until it wins the war.

In contrast, 66% wanted a negotiated solution to end it as soon as possible.

About 52 million people https://www.thinkglobalhealth.org/article/reversing-ukraines-population-loss-after-four-years-of-war" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">lived in Ukraine in 1991.

Back in May, Denys Uliutin, Ukraine’s Minister of Social Policy, https://korabelov.info/en/2026/05/587470/only-22-25-million-in-territory-controlled-by-ukraine-ministry-of-social-policy/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">said the country now only has about 22 to 25 million residents.